E3: Record jump in US jobless claims as Covid-19 drives America into recession - business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as more than three million Americans lose their jobs last week

Just in: The BBC is dropping streaming TV shows in ‘ultra high-definition’, to free up some bandwidth on the UK’s broadband networks.

That should help networks handle the sudden jump in demand for internet access and web video conferencing services as millions more people try to work from home.

New: The BBC is to stop streaming shows on the iPlayer in ultra high definition to do its bit to ease the pressure on the UK broadband network as usage rises. Lesser measure than Netflix, Amazon’s Prime Video, Disney+ and YouTube have put in place.

Ambrose Crofton, market analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, agrees that America’s economy is now in recession.

Here his take on the surge in US unemployment last week:

“The US economy has entered a recession. Initial claims – a measure of the number of new filings to receive unemployment benefits– rose to 3.283 million for the week ending 21 March. The speed and magnitude of the move higher highlights how US businesses have had to let staff go in the face of the sudden coronavirus shutdown.

Policymakers have moved to try to limit the extent of this recession: the US Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate to zero and restarted quantitative easing at an aggressive pace; and Congress agreed a $2.2 trillion bill to support businesses and consumers. Despite this support, a neutral allocation to risk may make sense, at least until jobless claims and the infection rate have peaked.”

Oxford Economics also fears the US jobless rate is heading to 10%, fast (from 3.5% in February)

Oxford Economics: "We foresee 15 to 20 million jobs losses in the coming weeks with the unemployment rate likely surging above 10% in April."

The New York stock market has opened higher, despite today’s grim jobless data and recession warning from Fed chair Jay Powell.

The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 index both jumped by 2% at the open.

Back in the UK, defence and engineering firm Babcock has become the latest firm to unveil plans to help make thousands of ventilators to help the National Health Service treat Covid-19 patients.

It is joining Dyson, several small specialist firms and a consortium called Ventilator Challenge UK, led by Airbus.

“This is a critical time for the country as a whole and for the NHS in particular. When the opportunity arose for us to get involved in helping the NHS to save lives, we knew it was the right thing to do. I’m really proud of the commitment and innovation of everyone in the team, across Babcock and our medical and supply chain partners.

“Combining our engineering expertise with advances in medical technology has resulted in a solution that will help the NHS save lives. That capability, combined with a diverse supply chain will ensure that we can get this equipment manufactured, processed and delivered as a matter of urgency.”

John Westwood of Blacktower Financial Management says the surge in US jobless claims shows that fears of a US downturn are now being realised:

Investors’ nightmares have unfortunately become a reality in the US with the latest unemployment claims being revealed at 3.2 million in one week.

This has exceeded the record of 700,000 back in 1982 and is a direct sign of the shape of the current economy.

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics says today’s initial claims data shows America could soon be facing a 10% unemployment rate.

And even if the economy does bounce back later this year, not all the 3.3 million jobs lost last week will be recovered. Nor will the jobs being lost this week, or next week....

Based solely on the historical relationship between claims and the unemployment rate, 3,283,000 equates to an unemployment rate of somewhere between 30% and 40%.

We are not suggesting the latter will rise to those levels, but we would be amazed if it didn’t exceed 10% by May, if not April. There will be a very significant drop back in unemployment when the number of new coronavirus infections fall and the economy begins to reopen, but it won’t reverse all of these losses. The unemployment rate could remain elevated for years.

Here’s our US business editor Dominic Rushe on today’s abysmal US jobless data:

A record 3.3 million people filed claims for unemployment in the US last week as the Covid-19 pandemic shut down large parts of America’s economy.

According to the labor department, the number of new jobless claims filed by individuals seeking unemployment benefits rose to 3.28m from 281,000 the previous week. The figure is the highest ever reported, beating the previous record of 695,000 claims filed the week ending 2 October 1982.

Related: Record 3.3 million Americans file for unemployment as the US tries to contain Covid-19

Not-for-profit group Equitable Growth fears that the true picture of US unemployment is even worse than today’s diabolically bad jobless figures.

They point out that not every laid-off workers files for support, and unemployment offices have been overwhelmed by applications anyway - meaning some applications may not be dealt with yet.

The number of initial UI claims is most likely an underestimation of how much joblessness is rising, since not all workers who are laid off apply or are eligible for UI. A @BLS_gov analysis found that only 26% of workers who lost their job during 2018 applied for benefits. 3/7 pic.twitter.com/UlrENxD6RU

The number of Americans filing ‘continuing’ claims for jobless support has also risen, from 1.702m to 1.803m.

That’s another bad sign - it means the people who were already out of work weren’t able to find employment last week (understandable, given the economic shutdown).

Quite the Jobless Claims number. Highest on record *by 2.5million*. And Initial Claims bigger than Continuing.

BREAKING! US initial jobless claims rise by an unprecedented 3.3 million as the economy comes to a sudden stop. pic.twitter.com/Q1INYRF5qB

Here’s some instant reaction to the news that more than three million Americans filed initial jobless claims, having lost work last week:

Initial jobless claims come in at a stunning 3,283,000. A huge and heartbreaking number this morning.

BRACE YOURSELF. I have been a labor economist for a very long time and have never seen anything like this. Here are last week’s initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims. (1/n) pic.twitter.com/fWhljQF9ww

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Initial claims were 3,283,000 for the week ending 3/21 (+3,001,000).

Insured unemployment was 1,803,000 for the week ending 3/14 (+101,000).https://t.co/ys7Eg5LKAW

Well we expected them to be large but the Initial Jobless claims have smashed expectations with 3.28 million Americans claiming unemployment benefit last week.

NEWSFLASH: More than three million Americans signed on for jobless benefit last week, as the Covid-19 outbreak hit the US economy hard.

The initial jobless claims figure, just out, and shows that 3.283m people across the US filed for unemployment support in the week to Saturday March 21.

Tensions are rising in the markets, as investors prepare to learn just how many people lost their jobs across America last week.....

~20 mins until the most anticipated U.S. weekly initial jobless claims print in recent memory.
- California's Gov. has pointed to over 1mn claims in that state alone.
- The number will not be pretty. Consensus points to a comfortable all-time high, but it could be much worse. pic.twitter.com/YKG9z8eul6

Newsflash: The Bank of England has left UK interest rates unchanged, at its scheduled meeting this week.

The spread of the disease and the measures that are likely to be needed to contain it have evolved significantly. The economic consequences of these developments are becoming more apparent and a very sharp reduction in activity is likely. Given the severity of that disruption, there is a risk of longer-term damage to the economy, especially if there are business failures on a large scale or significant increases in unemployment.

In the near term, many people will be unable to work for a period and others are adjusting their working arrangements. Many consumer-facing companies are now required to cease operations for a time, while other businesses have also needed to cease or scale back their activities. Household spending on social activities and other delayable forms of consumption is likely to decline materially. In an environment of heightened uncertainty, businesses are likely to postpone investment decisions. Exports are likely to weaken. These effects on economic activity will be offset partly by temporarily higher spending on essential goods and services. Nonetheless, business cashflows will be severely affected in a way that, without support measures, would threaten material numbers of businesses failing, and large and persistent rises in unemployment.

At its meeting ending on 25 March 2020, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain #BankRate at 0.1%. https://t.co/w7Stn3J1VZ

The coronavirus is dealing a body blow to global oil demand forecasts - and in the North Sea it is playing a role in growing the market’s crippling oversupply too.
Ineos has announced plans to postpone its summer maintenance on the North Sea’s most important oil pipeline to help reduce the need for staff to work together during national efforts to stem the spread of covid-19.

“This just adds another ripple to the growing oversupply pool of global liquids – an overhang for 2Q20 that is already so incomprehensibly massive that it will eventually force shut-ins as oil prices fall below short-run marginal costs and logistical challenges arise.”

Lloyd’s, the world’s oldest and biggest insurance market, has warned that the coronavirus pandemic is akin to a major natural disaster in terms of the claims it has sparked.

Insurers working in the market are facing a barrage of claims, ranging from cancelled events like the Olympic Games and Wimbledon to the cancellation of cruises and other trips.
Lloyd’s typically pays out £17bn to £18bn in claims to businesses and individuals every year, a tenth of which comes from natural catastrophes such as hurricanes or floods. The virus outbreak looks to be similar -- but the claims impact is estimated to be no larger than from a natural catastrophe, said John Neal, the Lloyd’s chief executive. He added that we should get a better idea within the next six weeks. But, he also warned that insurers will suffer an even bigger impact from losses in their investment portfolios because of the market turmoil in recent weeks. The Lloyd’s building is now closed -- the underwriting room shut down a week ago for the first time in Lloyd’s history and it enacted emergency trading protocols -- and the market’s 200 brokerages and 100 insurers are doing business remotely.

The counter-argument to BlackRock’s theory that equities now look attractive is that we simply don’t know how bad the Covid-19 downturn will be.

Politicians hope to get back to normal soon, but there’s no guarantee -- self-isolation, travel bans and supply chain disruption could be here for a while.

The stock market is pricing in the best case scenario of life during and after the coronavirus. That doesn't mean it's wrong, but it does mean things could get far worse, and it's hard to see the case that they'll get far better. https://t.co/1j8GZuQJna pic.twitter.com/IiZCFcdnu9

German conglomerate Bosch says its Healthcare Solutions subsidiary and Northern Ireland’s Randox Laboratories have developed a rapid test for Covid-19 which meets World Health Organisation requirements.

They say their molecular diagnostic test uses an existing Bosch Healthcare device. It provides a result in two-and-a-half hours, and can test for coronavirus and nine other respiratory diseases, including flu, from one sample, which doesn’t need to be transported to a laboratory.

German company Bosch says its healthcare subsidiary and Northern Ireland's Randox Laboratories have developed a test for Covid-19 which gives result in 2.5 hours and can also test for 9 other respiratoty diseases including flu from one sample. https://t.co/C4gawXxHb3

Halifax, the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, has withdrawn the majority of the mortgages it sells through brokers, including all first-time buyer loans, blaming a lack of “processing resource”.

“Our priority remains the wellbeing of our colleagues and customers and we’re closely monitoring the developing situation and continue to follow official guidelines.

“This has had a direct impact on our available processing resource and we have therefore withdrawn new mortgage and remortgage products across our residential range with a loan to value ratio of over 60%.”

“This isn’t a funding crisis - the banks are awash with liquidity.

“There are two main issues. The first is a processing one - they are not all set up for staff to work from home. The big processing centres are closed and they are operating with a skeleton staff.

“The Halifax’s decision to stop lending above 60% LTV reflects the wholesale recalibration of risk that is unfolding in the mortgage market.”

“There are no current plans to change our mortgage lending approach at this stage, though clearly we will have to monitor service levels in these unprecedented times.”

“Lenders are throwing all their resources into dealing with payment holiday requests. In the same way that people are buying food they don’t need, people are asking for payment holidays when they don’t need them. That is blocking the line for those who do.”

Newsflash: America’s top central bank has pledged to keep fighting to support the US economy.

Speaking on NBC, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said America ‘may well be in recession’. But it’s not a typical downturn, and while the slump may be severe, activity could rebound vigorously when the virus is under control.

Fed Chair Powell promises no limits on central bank:

"When it comes to this lending, we’re not going to run out of ammunition. That’s not going to happen"

Britain’s share index of medium-sized and small firms, the FTSE 250, is outperforming the wider market today.

The FTSE 250 is flat, lifted by housebuilder McCarthy & Stone (+16%), transport National Express (+15%) and pub chain Mitchells & Butler (+9%).

Following the recent market slump, asset manager BlackRock has told clients it now favours “rebalancing into risk assets”.

BlackRock is encouraged by the new $2trn stimulus package going through Congress, calling it a “decisive” policy response. It now believes the market selloff had created “significant value” for long-term investors.

Bought a new laptop to cope with the coronavirus lockdown? How about a fridge? Maybe even a PlayStation? (don’t worry, we won’t tell the boss).

If so, you’re not alone. Online sales at Dixons Carphone have surged by more than 70% as Britons rushed to buy home electronics kit and kitchen equipment, in preparation for weeks of confinement.

Related: Dixons Carphone sees 70% jump in online sales as Britons move to home working

Aircraft manufacturer Airbus is sending some UK staff at its Broughton and Filton factories home early for an extended Easter break.

It says that production is being scaled back at the sites, which produce wings, as part of its ‘stringent health and safety measures’ regarding Covid-19.

The production and corresponding activities for support to production of the wing plants in Bremen, Filton and Broughton will be reduced, with an extended Easter holiday implemented at Broughton and Filton and a reduced working week at Bremen. The sites will remain open during this period and will continue to ensure wing deliveries to the final assembly lines, the receipt and control of materials and components from the supply chain, building and installation maintenance, critical administrative support and preparation for activity restart.

Employees will continue to perform activities remotely via home-working where their activities are not directly related to the production activity being adapted.

Wing production @Airbus Broughton will stop after today’s shifts for an extended Easter break #coronavirus

Bad news for Vodafone customers whose finances are suffering from Covid-19 - your bills are going up:

Vodafone is pushing ahead with a 2.5% price rise from April. ““We appreciate now is not a good time to be communicating a price rise. It’s something the industry does annually and our competitors have announced their intention to increase prices earlier this year.”

The chairman of online grocer Ocado has told Britons not to panic - they’re not going to starve during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sir Stuart Rose told Radio 4’s Today Programme that the UK’s food stocks are healthy, so consumers should show some restraint rather than buying and wasting items.

“The first thing is ‘don’t panic’. There isn’t going to be no food tomorrow,.

"There is a billion pounds more food in people's larders than there was a couple of weeks ago - what are they doing with it? How much food do you need to eat? How much do you need to store away? Please show some restraint'' @Ocado chairman Stuart Rose on @BBCr4today ‍♀️

“If you buy a chicken, roast the chicken, have the roast chicken dinner, the following day turn it into a stir fry, the following day make it into soup.”

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould is also bracing for a horrific jump in US unemployment today:

“There is mounting concern about just how ugly US jobless claims numbers might be when released at lunchtime UK time. A spike in claims across the border in Canada to nearly one million suggests they could be gargoylesque.

“The question is just what the markets are pricing in. Everybody is braced for economic data to be exceptionally awful for some time as we are living through a period which has no precedent since these records began.

After 90 minutes trading, the main European markets are down between 1% and 2%.

The optimism of Tuesday and Wednesday is fading, as traders return to fretting about the global downturn - and today’s US jobless claims figures (due in three hours).

Singapore has kicked off the rounds of shockingly poor data which is expected in the first half of this year. The GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 10.6% the fastest rate of contraction in over a decade. This is merely giving us a taste of what’s to come.

The job market across the globe is about to turn very ugly. Yesterday in Parliament the surge in unemployment which is expected in the UK was laid bare. Officials warned that over the past 9 days almost half a million people in the UK registered for the main benefit, universal credit.

Shopping centre Intu is also suffering from the coronavirus.

The outbreak came at a dreadful time for Intu, undermining its efforts to agree emergency funding. So with landlords now unable to meet their rent payments, it risks breaching the terms of its borrowing.

Intu Properties, one of Britain’s biggest shopping centre owners, has warned it will breach the terms on its debt commitments following a collapse in the rents received from its retail tenants, unless it can secure debt waivers from its lenders.

The owner of the Trafford Centre in Manchester and Lakeside in Essex said it had received just 29% of rents due this month from its tenants, compared with 77% a year ago.

Related: Intu warns of breach in debt commitments as retail rents collapse

UK property giant British Land has suspended its dividend payments, having been hit by the Covid-19 crisis.

Our immediate priority is to support those customers who are being hardest hit. At sites we control, we are therefore releasing our smaller retail, food & beverage and leisure customers from their rental obligations for three months (April to June). The financial impact in terms of lost rent and service charge is c.£3m.

For other retail, food & beverage and leisure customers experiencing financial challenges because of COVID-19, we are prepared to defer the March quarter day rents and spread repayment over the six quarters from September 2020.

Back in the UK, the Daily Mail’s owner has warned shareholders it will miss its revenue targets this year, due to the Covid-19 crisis.

DMGT says that its events and exhibitions arm, and consumer media businesses, are now suffering from the coronavirus outbreak and the efforts to control it.

DMGT, owner of the Daily Mail, Metro and the i, effectively issues profit warning telling investors coronavirus impact means it will miss revenue forecasts this year. CEO says company has £700m cash and facilities to “withstand a sustained period of global economic uncertainty”

Singapore has warned that its economy is contracting sharply -- a bad sign for the global economy.

Preliminary GDP data show that Singapore’s economic output shrank at an annualised rate of 10.6% this quarter, leaving the economy 2.2% smaller than a year ago.

World’s first 1Q2020 GDP print from Singapore highlighted worse than expected annualized -10.6%qoq (vs -8.2% exp). Industry more resilient to virus impact than service. DB expects data could get revised down as prelim estimate mainly relies on Jan/Feb data https://t.co/coqWbCpDPj pic.twitter.com/9msquEnz8I

Singapore Government pumps in $48b more to fight Covid-19 fallout, on top of $6.4b already announcedhttps://t.co/W8deFIgBmZ

Oof! Confidence among German consumers has hit its lowest level since the financial crisis.

Data firm GfK’s monthly survey of morale in Europe’s largest economy has slumped to just 2.7, down from 8.3 in March.

“In light of the current development, we are withdrawing our consumer forecast of one percent growth for 2020. Retailers, manufacturers and service providers must prepare for a recession.

How severe this recession will be will ultimately depend on when the economy finds its way back to normality. A reliable forecast regarding consumption can only be made once we can predict how long the protective measures to combat corona will remain in place.”

#Germany GfK consumer sentiment looks like it just ran head first into a brick wall pic.twitter.com/6A2y6m0UCj

Paul Donovan of UBS Wealth Management says that today’s US jobless claims reading is very important, but may not be terribly accurate:

US initial jobless claims numbers are expected to be very, very large.

If lots of Americans lose their jobs, the start of phase two (economic bounce-back) will be delayed. More unemployed means less consumption. Today’s data may have accuracy issues, if there were not enough people to process and count the number of claims.

Economists surveyed by Reuters predict that around a million US citizens filed jobless claims last week (including Citi’s forecast of 4 million).

As their chart shows, that would smash the previous record from the 1980s (when the US has hiked interest rates to squish inflation, at the cost of many jobs).

“Containment efforts in response to the coronavirus resulted in a very sudden and very dramatic change over just a few days,”

“Layoffs were part of that change and applicants appear to have flooded state unemployment insurance offices within a very short time-span.

European stock markets have all opened in the red, as investors brace for today’s grim US jobless figures.

In London, the FTSE 100 has dropped by 166 points, or 2.9%, handing back some of Wednesday’s 242-point gains.

After a nice recovery over the last few days, investors will be wondering whether the selling is about to resume again in this near market.

With a growing number of countries in lockdown and the virus still spreading rapidly in Europe and the US, it is very difficult to be optimistic about the global economic outlook despite all the large monetary and fiscal stimulus measures announced by various governments and central banks over the past couple of weeks.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Jobless claims expected to spike to a record-breaking number in the millions. https://t.co/t4NpuktFPx pic.twitter.com/iAn1YO2YAM

“It’s the tip of the iceberg, and they’re going to be ugly. It depends on the speed at which the claims were filed, and the next week will probably be worse,”

This will be the first shock and awe. ... It’s terrifying, but it’s why nobody is going to tell Congress they did too much.”

US futures dipping lower this morning.....#DOW 20847 -1.66%#SPX 2435 -1.75%#NASDAQ 7366 -1.44%#RUSSELL 1077 -2.67%#FANG 2833 -2.15%

Good morning early birds and goodbye two-day rally #markets

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